Economic-agricultural risk and climate change scenarios (2025-2075) in a region of the dry mexican tropics

Abstract

According global climate change scenarios, Tierra Caliente in Michoacán is one of the most vulnerable regions to this event. At the local and regional level, there is no information on the degree of regional vulnerability or the risk of the municipal economy linked to the agricultural sector. The aim of this study was to design a methodology to quantify the regional economic-agricultural risk. Risk was conceived as the result of vulnerability and threat. For the first variable an economic-agricultural vulnerability index was designed using 21 indicators. Conversely, regional climate change was conceived as the threat, verified through temperature and precipitation analysis under climate change scenarios, for which 20 climatological stations were analyzed. The results show the agricultural economic risk for the municipalities within the region and the fact the region will experience increases in maximum temperatures of 0.4 ºC to 3.1 ºC and reductions in minimum temperatures from 0.4 ºC to 2.4 ºC. On the other hand, since precipitation already shows signs of a reduction in the periods reviewed, a reduction trend of between 10% and 20% is expected, thereby proving the sign of climate change in the region.