Analysis and Modeling of the Spatial Patterns of Deforestation (2005-2025) in the La Union Micro-Watershed in the Chiapa de Corzo Municipality, Chiapas

Abstract

The present study analyzes the deforestation of tropical deciduous forest (TDF) and develops a trend model from the present until 2025. The cartography used covers two periods: 2005-2011 (calibration of model) and 2016 (validation of model), on a scale of 1:20 000. It found that in 2005, TDF accounted for 34.2 % (8 161 ha) of the total area of the La Unión micro-watershed, in the Chiapa de Corzo municipality, Chiapas. By 2016, this cover had been reduced to 25.1 % (7 182 ha), 9.1 % less in 11 years, representing a total of 2 168 deforested hectares, assigned for other land uses. The estimated exchange rates showed an upward deforestation trend: -10.1 % /year (2005-2011) and -16.6 % /year (2011-2016). By 2025, TDF would be expected to account for 13.9 % (3 311 ha) of the area in the micro-watershed, 11.2 % less than in 2016 (2 682 ha). The results also highlight the growth of human settlements and the expansion of the area allocated for agricultural land, particularly induced pastureland, the latter being the land use which has acquired the greatest area over the years.